Tuesday, February 22, 2022

Hot or Smart? You Get to Choose

A friend and I started talking about whether we wanted our kids to be smart or good looking. I turned the question inward. What would I want for myself?

Thought Experiment

You're going to be reincarnated tomorrow. You will be reborn a human, and you get to choose your intelligence and attractiveness. Your sex and parents will be randomly assigned.

Your intelligence and attractiveness must be inversely proportional. So in order to be the smartest human on Earth, you'll have to also be the ugliest. Or you can be average attractiveness and average intelligence.

Using percentiles, you get to pick your future rankings. Choose a percentile between 1-99 for both attractiveness and intelligence. The sum of your two numbers must not exceed 100.

Click here for more on IQ testing.


 

Click here for more details and images of attractiveness ratings and statistics.

 

Normal Distributions

It looks like intelligence and attractiveness should both follow normal distributions. So when making a choice, it is safe to assume the 68, 95, 99.7 rule, click here for more details.


Things to Consider 

Men and women are treated differently based on their looks and intelligence. You should be prepared for living your choice as a male and female.

Regardless of your attractiveness, some people will find you more attractive.

Where are you now? What percentile are you in intelligence and looks.? What is that total number. I'm guessing most people are going to think they're above 100, but statistically speaking most people wouldn't be. I'm realizing, for the first time in my life, I'm probably below average attractiveness. I always thought I was average to above average, but probably not. People grow up with their families who look like them and share the same features. People all probably over estimate their family features and traits. In that case, people might find themselves more attractive than they actually are. Because they have a bias for their parents, siblings, and families physical traits.

I looked up the distributions of my ASVAB score from the military, and I my score was over two standard deviations from the 50th percentile when I took it. That's not directly related to an IQ score, but it's probably safe to say I'm close to a standard deviation about the average IQ score of 100. According to assortative mating, I might be above average looking like I thought! Although my dating history doesn't confirm that conclusion.

Either way, my reincarnated self will most likely have to take a hit on intelligence to keep my looks, or sacrifice my looks to keep my brains. Or I'm just way too overconfident in my looks and smarts. What about you?

Final Answer

I'm going to think about this more. But for now, I have to stick with a 50/50 split.

Thursday, February 17, 2022

Chess, Biology, Culture, and the Gender Rank Gap

A friend made a comment about how chess was a sport that didn't need a women's and men's category because it's intellectual and not physical. We argued about this for a while, and here is my response.

As of today, it’s factual to state that males are better chess players than females on average and at the elite levels. The question is why? Chess has a history of sexism. Research suggests that stereotypes in gender negatively impact female players. How much of the gender gap in chess is cultural vs biological? T: The Story of Testosterone, the Hormone that Dominates and Divides Us by Carole Hooven gives a lot of evidence for physical and personality differences between biological sexes. If all cultural factors were erased, differences between men and women would exist. It is unclear whether those differences would affect chess performance between men and women (see thought experiment below).

Physically, females experience fatigue earlier than males due to glycogen stores in the body. “During physical stress and during chess playing, mental fatigue occurs earlier in women.” With that said, “There exists no gender specific intellectual performance in humans for chess playing.” At the highest level where chess matches take several hours, elite women may fatigue earlier than elite men. This biological difference in sex could account for gaps between male and female grandmasters.

How does biological sex affect people’s motivation and preferences to play chess? Humans, and their common ancestors, were naturally selected and sexually selected. Environments determined which physical and psychological traits were most successful in creating successful offspring. Females also choose mates and males competed for females. Females selected males with traits they wanted for their offspring. Males more likely to be aggressive and muscular is common in mammals. Regardless of culture, biology affects motivation and personality.

For good and bad reasons, society assumes males are more ambitions than females. Susan Mattern's book on the science and history of menopause called The Slow Moon Climbs gives a great general explanation of how sexual selection can determine competitiveness: (She references Robert L. Trivers' 1972 classic discussion of sexual selection; and The Myth of Monogamy by Barash and Lipton 2001.)

"In species that compete for mating opportunities, males’ potential reproductive rate is much higher than that of females. Because they are constrained by the rate of female reproduction—a population can only produce as many children as the females can bear— some males may have many more offspring than others. Among these species, males gain more fitness by competing for mates than by providing for offspring. There is also more sexual dimorphism, because males evolve traits, such as large body size, that help them in this competition, a process that tends to escalate like an arms race."
Judit Polgár is the greatest woman to play chess. Her parents raised and educated her and her sisters through specializing in chess. Polgár’s father believed geniuses were made, not born. He is wrong. Geniuses are born and then made; they need both genes and environment. With that said, most people are born with the potential to acquire expertise in any field, including the ability to be good chess players.

Facts:


Thought Experiment

What would happen if 5000 random healthy female babies and 5000 random healthy male babies were raised in a nurturing compound focused on creating chess grandmasters?

Imagine a compound being run like a dream boarding school. Chess would be the means to learn reading, math, and all the basic skills. All teachers would be qualified instructors. The school would have zero sexism. Students would go to school which would include chess practice. Students would have plenty of free time. They would live great lives. Chess would be how they are graded in school. And chess would be the highest honor given. Teachers would motivate, but not force students to play or practice chess outside of classes. What would happened with the students chess abilities?

Would the gender gap disappear?

Would the females care more about friendships and other social activities? Would the most obsessive, competitive, and determined students be overwhelmingly male?

I suspect yes and yes.

Depending on the duration of the experiment, there would be different results. Assuming there were three experiment durations: 12 year, 18 year, and 30 year. And assuming all players start with equal ratings, using the ELO, an objective rating system based on players ratings at the start of a game and the game’s outcome. 

Tournaments would be the school's grading. What would be the medians, means, and top performers for both sexes? What are the readers' predictions?

12 Year Experiment


Female

Male

Mean



Median



Top Performer



18 Year Experiment


Female

Male

Mean



Median



Top Performer



30 Year Experiment


Female

Male

Mean



Median



Top Performer



I'd love to see any readers predictions in the comments section.

Conclusion

Chess is physical. Biology probably matters. 

I predict as time goes on, males will pull away from the females. Maybe something like the table below.

12 Year Experiment


Female

Male

Mean

1480
1520

Median

1490
1470

Top Performer

2300
2400

18 Year Experiment


Female

Male

Mean

1440
1560

Median

1480
1470

Top Performer

2400
2600

30 Year Experiment


Female

Male

Mean

1400  
1600

Median

1460
1500

Top Performer

2500
3000

This is really based on intuition. I think the females will be better students at earlier ages. With time, females will care less and less about being really good at chess. Males should get more competitive over time. The most ambitious chess players will be male and they will lift u the average male (mean scores).