Starting Questions
What are the risks of covid? How likely are those risks? What are the risks of the covid vaccine? How likely are those risks? What's the evidence?
Main Idea
The sars-cov-2 (covid) virus is substantially more dangerous and deadly than the covid vaccines.
Disclaimer
It would take a book or many posts to address all the issues, so here is a brief attempt to tackle the main factors.
My Case
I read this article on herd immunity since writing this post. I would recommend reading this over my blog post. The article predates the covid pandemic! So it isn't politically charged like the information today.
Vaccines are one of the greatest discoveries in health and or science. Smallpox was eradicated because of vaccines. Many other diseases have severely decreased or practically disappeared in developed nations due to vaccines. The United States recoups its smallpox costs every 26 days." Vaccines are one of the best investment a nation can make. The economic benefits of vaccines go on and on. The costs to develop and distribute vaccines are a small fraction of the costs to treat the illnesses vaccines prevent.
Vaccines have risks, but they are extremely low and rare risks. From Wiki, "Just like any medication or procedure, no vaccine can be 100% safe or effective for everyone because each person's body can react differently.[32][33] While minor side effects, such as soreness or low grade fever, are relatively common, serious side effects are very rare and occur in about 1 out of every 100,000 vaccinations and typically involve allergic reactions that can cause hives or difficulty breathing.[34][35]"
mRNA vaccines developed and popularized for many reasons. One of the main reasons was/is safety. mRNA vaccines are safer! They do not give infection, or any agent that causes disease. They give you a molecule that produces desired antibodies. Here is a 2018 explanation that is more accurate and detailed than my summary. The key points at the top of the page are an easy summary. The article also gives a nice history of vaccines. There are plenty of pre pandemic information on the benefits of mRNA vaccines.
The covid vaccine trials were expedited, but since the FDA approval, there have been over 350,000,000 doses of the covid vaccine given in the US. Minor side effects are likely as your immune system works hard to produce the antibodies that will help you fight off a future covid sickness. But those minor side effects cannot give you covid. Initially, the Johnson vaccine was pulled after 6 women in about 6 million developed blood clots, only 1 of those women died. As of May 2021, "28 out of about 8.7 million" people vaccinated with the Johnson vaccine developed a blood clot. It only took 6 blood clots and 1 death to pull Johnson for further investigations.
I can't find current data breakdowns for specific ages and health conditions, but the most at risk population is old and unhealthy people. Considering my intended audience, I estimate you both have about a 1% chance of dying from covid if you get it, about 2% if either of you have high blood pressure (based on early pandemic data, source). Considering how much you both travel, I would say you both have a high chance of getting covid at some point.
Here is a great source for understanding some of the data terms, like Case Fatality Rate. The current case fatality rate in the US is 1.7%. That means almost 2 people die for every 100 cases confirmed. For vaccinated people the risk is a lot lower, click here to see the full table of all states. The numbers vary, but in every single state, vaccinated people are hospitalized a lot less and die a lot less than unvaccinated people. Current stats for effectiveness of the vaccine are falling towards 80%, but 80% effective is a lot better than 0%. Not getting the vaccine is 0%.
Unfortunately, it is hard to find specific, useful, and accurate data for individuals, without being a data scientist. The data is openly available, but I don't have the skills to work with it. Below are visuals and my conclusion.
Visuals
Below are visuals I found while writing. Unfortunately, I cannot find current case fatality rates by age and health conditions which would provide you with the most accurate risk of death from covid.
Here is a look at deaths in the US. This graphs alone are not that useful because they are missing the context of the population sizes and cases confirmed, but the tables allow you to pinpoint specific age groups.
Here is the same table above but highlighting the 2020 data. Compare the difference in pneumonia deaths. In 2018 and 2019 the flu and pneumonia killed 60,000 and 50,000 people. In 2020, pneumonia killed over 350,000 people.
Here is a look at the top 10 causes of death prior to Covid in 2018 and 2019.
Conclusion
Think of a cost to risk analysis. Your costs are very low for getting the vaccine. It's literally free where I live; it took me longer to drive there than to get shot; and the health risks are extremely low.
Think of the benefits: your risk of dying from covid will be close to 0%; you will make others feel safer; the US will be 1 person closer to herd immunity; and US will get 1 person closer to the end of liberals crying about covid vaccines which is secretly my real agenda.
To me it's a simple choice. I'll love you regardless of your choice.
